Category Archives: Performance
2011 has come to a close. Time to see how my trio of strategies did for the year…
The TSP model lost about 2.3% in 2011. It lagged this year thanks to the fast drop in the stock market in August. It started out the year in a 60/40 G fund/ C fund allocation and switched to a 100% G fund allocation in early August. It remained all in the G fund through the end of the year.
The Core portfolio gained about 2.5% in 2011. Volatility was low as expected. The gains in treasuries and gold holdings more than made up for losses from stocks in the portfolio.
The Alpha model gained about 97.7% in 2011. It wasn’t officially created in its current form till Sept 30. The chart below shows returns had the model been followed all year. The beauty of this strategy is it can earn high returns regardless of whether the market is rising or falling. It’s incredibly volatile though.
Wishing everyone the best of luck in 2012.
Here’s a look at strategy returns so far for 2011. The broad stock market rose early in the year and has been in a choppy sideways grind since about mid-February. Long term interest rates remain low and have been dropping recently. The 10 year treasury rate is currently below 3%. Gold has continued its rise and recently set new highs.
The TSP Strategy signaled a move to 100% C fund last September. After the S&P 500 index rose 10% the strategy switched to a 60% G Fund/ 40% C Fund on the close of trading on January 3rd of this year. Daily moves this year have generally followed the S&P 500 with less volatility and a more gradual upward movement due to the G fund weighting. The strategy is up 3.6% as of close of trading today.
Taxable Account Strategy
The low risk portfolio of my taxable account strategy is up 4.6% so far this year. Returns dipped slightly at the beginning of the year but have since been gradually rising. Returns are based on rebalanced weights at the end of 2010.
The IRA Strategy will be 100% allocated in UPRO until either 1.) the S&P 500 index hits about 1377 (came close but didn’t quite get there) or 2.) the S&P 500 index falls enough to signal a move to SHV (basically a move to cash). The strategy is up 16.1% so far this year and very volatile as you can see.
Check out the strategies page for more information on how these portfolios are constructed.